# Content License — Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

Copyright 2026 Murat Aktay Gunaydin — Market Fragility project.

The written and recorded output of this project is licensed under a
**Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)**.

- License deed: <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>
- Full legal code: <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode>

The summary below is the human-readable deed. **It is not a substitute for the
license.** Where this summary and the legal code differ, the legal code governs.

---

## Scope — what this license covers

| Covered | Description |
|---|---|
| `METHODOLOGY.md`, `METHODOLOGY-V2.md` | Frozen core methodology documents (v1.5, v2.1) |
| `GB-METHODOLOGY.md` | Frozen GB cell methodology (v1.0) |
| `KOVAN-ISKELET.md` | Hive skeleton / vision document |
| `reports/**` | Backtest, feasibility, probe, refutation and bridge reports, including `backtest_summary.json` and exported CSVs |
| `signals/**` | The append-only live record (US v1, US v2 shadow, GB) |
| `README.md` | Project prose |
| Site editorial text | Headings, prose, labels, tables and disclaimers presented in `site/` |

### Mixed-nature file: `site/index.html`

That file contains both an implementation and editorial text. The **editorial
text** (headings, prose, labels, disclaimer wording, table captions) is CC BY
4.0; the **markup, styles and scripts** are Apache-2.0
([LICENSE-CODE.md](LICENSE-CODE.md)). If the boundary is unclear for a given
fragment, treat it as CC BY 4.0 and attribute accordingly.

## Not covered by this license

**Source code** — `src/`, `configs/`, `tests/`, `.github/workflows/` and other
tooling are licensed under **Apache-2.0**; see [LICENSE-CODE.md](LICENSE-CODE.md).

**Third-party source data — `data/`.** The raw and processed data under `data/`
originates from external providers and is **not owned by this project**; it is
therefore **not licensed here**. It remains subject to the terms of its
respective sources, including but not limited to: the Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis (FRED/ALFRED), Yahoo Finance, the Bank for International Settlements,
the Bank of England, the UK Office for National Statistics, Deutsche Bundesbank,
FINRA, Robert J. Shiller's data pages, and the Kenneth R. French Data Library.
Anyone redistributing that data must satisfy the original provider's terms
directly. What this project licenses is its **own** contribution: the
methodology, the derived scores and regimes, the recorded signals, and the
written analysis.

---

## CC BY 4.0 — human-readable summary

**You are free to:**

- **Share** — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- **Adapt** — remix, transform, and build upon the material

for any purpose, even commercially. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as
long as you follow the license terms.

**Under the following terms:**

- **Attribution** — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the
  license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable
  manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
- **No additional restrictions** — You may not apply legal terms or
  technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the
  license permits.

**Notices:**

- You do not have to comply with the license for elements of the material in the
  public domain or where your use is permitted by an applicable exception or
  limitation.
- No warranties are given. The license may not give you all of the permissions
  necessary for your intended use. For example, other rights such as publicity,
  privacy, or moral rights may limit how you use the material.

---

## Attribution and the integrity of the record

The frozen Turkish methodology documents are the **authoritative record**;
English summaries elsewhere in this project (including the dashboard) are
convenience summaries, not the record. Attribution for scientific or documentary
use should reference those documents.

The signal record under `signals/` is **append-only**: each file was written on
the date it carries and has never been edited or recomputed. CC BY 4.0 permits
you to adapt and republish it — and its **"indicate if changes were made"** term
is the operative one here: if you recompute, filter, re-score or otherwise alter
the record, please say so plainly, so an altered series is not mistaken for the
original point-in-time record. This is a clarification of the existing
attribution term, **not an additional restriction**.

## How to cite

> Gunaydin, M. A. (2026). *Market Fragility: a pre-registered market-fragility
> observatory* (Version v1.5 / v2.1) [Research instrument and dataset].
> https://marketfragility.org (accessed YYYY-MM-DD).

Short form:

> Market Fragility project (2026), *METHODOLOGY v1.5*,
> https://marketfragility.org

When citing a specific finding, cite the report that contains it (for example
`reports/backtest_v1.md` for the v1 verdict, or `reports/refutation_v2.md` for
the v2 refutation) and note that the source documents are written in Turkish.

## Disclaimer

This material is provided for research and observation only. It is **not
investment advice** and must not be used for any financial decision. No
warranty of any kind is given as to its accuracy, completeness or fitness for
any purpose.